Since my method concentrates mainly on trading reversals you will need to understand the mechanics of a reversal. So I am going to dissect a reversal trade and show you exactly how reversals form and why. There are three parts to a reversal:
Simply put, a preceding trend is a strong move by the Bulls or Bears indicating a lot of buying or selling pressure. In the example above, the preceding trend is a very strong bearish move, indicating that there are a lot of Sellers in the market and very few Buyers.
You may be thinking ‘why is a preceding trend an essential part of a reversal?’ Well the answer is very simple. If an Indecision Candle forms without a preceding trend what the heck could it possibly be reversing from? If it is not reversing from anything it cannot be considered a reversal candle!
Here is how it works:
So this is the preceding bearish trend. You can see the Bears have a lot of power while the Bulls have very little. This is why the price is moving down, but then…
Look at that. We have an Indecision Candle forming in the middle of a strong bearish trend. Think about what happened here for a second. In the picture above, you see that there was a lot of selling pressure and the Bears had control. All of a sudden, you get this Indecision Candle.
An Indecision Candle means that the Bulls and Bears now have equal power. In other words, it means some Sellers have left the market and some Buyers are entering into the market. This transition of power is reflected by the Indecision Candle.
There are many different types of Indecision Candle. The strongest by far is the Long Wicked Pattern I showed you on the candlestick analysis page.
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Early this month, Westpac projected that AUD/USD rebound was set for further gains towards 0.9510 (AUD was trading sub 0.91 at the time). Now as the pair has already reached this target over the past few days before retracing around one and half big figure lower, Westpac is out with another call on AUD. "Since then consensus has clearly shifted on China and the A$ has moved sharply higher. However, I am not convinced that this improvement in Asia is fully 'in the price'. This week's flash PMI in China is a good example. Markets were expecting a modest improvement, but got a solid rise to 6 ...
Asian stocks fell for a third day, trimming the biggest monthly advance on the regional benchmark index since January 2012, as industrial and health care companies retreated. Nitto Denko Corp. (6988) slumped 11 percent as BNP Paribas SA advised selling shares of the materials manufacturer, saying the surge since the announcement of its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average was overdone. Primary Health Care Ltd. (PRY) sank 1.6 percent in Sydney after a board member sold 340,000 shares of the provider of health-care services. Advantest Corp. retreated 7.2 percent after the semiconductor maker forecast a
There appears to be 3 big lies (among many other smaller ones) currently driving the flow of speculative capital around the world. First, Bernanke said the Taper was off due to 'worsening' financial conditions (except financial conditions remain very near all-time highs). Many mean-reverting extrapolators are calling for a renaissance in emerging markets and Asian growth that will lead us out of this 'temporary' slowdown (except consensus growth expectations for Asian economies are tumbling in reality) and most people assume US economic 'escape velocity' growth is around the corner and the Fed will
The Japanese Yen is weakening across the board following headlines from Kyodo news, saying "Japan stimulus steps to have pledge to study corporate tax cut", referring to cuts in corporate tax rate. The headline is not sitting well for those long Japanese Yen, with heavy buying interest emerging immediately afterwards, as the Nikkei 225 in Japan also recovers the bid tone to now be flat from a 1.3% down. Earlier on the day, LDP’s Noda said PM Abe is due to announce economic measures, including the VAT, corporate tax and other stimulatory measures, on October 1. Looking at key levels, the
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below rising trend line support-turned-resistance set from early April (now at 10587), hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 10469, the June 13 low, with a push beneath that exposing the March 25 bottom at 10413. Alternatively, a reversal above the trend line targets the August 16 low at 10646.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are pulling back as expected, completing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern and breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1708.70. Sellers are now testing the 38.2% level at 1693.00, with a push beneath that exposing the 50% Fib at 1680.30. The 1708.70 mark has been recast as near-term resistance.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices found interim support at 1320.86, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, edging higher to set their sights on resistance in the 1341.60-47.52 area. This is defined by a horizontal pivot and the 23.6% Fib. A break above the outer threshold of this region targets rising channel support-turned-resistance at 1393.15. Alternatively, a reversal through support eyes the 50% expansion at 1304.10.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke support at the bottom of a rising channel set from early July and an upward-sloping trend line established from mid-April. Sellers are now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 102.05, with a break below that eyeing the 50% mark at 98.91.Channel support-turned-resistance is now at 105.15.
The AUD/USD has enjoyed a solid run over the last few weeks which has been punctuated by a strong surge higher last week sending it to a three month high just above 0.95. In the last week or so it has slowly drifted back a little lower and is now consolidating just below 0.94 which has established itself as a key level over the last week. Several weeks ago the AUD/USD had been trying valiantly to stay above the support level at 0.89 as all week it placed downward pressure but was unable to sustain any break lower. At the beginning of August it moved very well from three year lows to move back above the key level of 90 cents and beyond to a two week high just above 0.92 to finish out that week. Over the last month or so, it has certainly shown some signs of continuing lower and moving through the 0.8850 to 0.9000 range but has recovered well lately. At the end of July the AUD/USD fell very strongly and appeared to resume the medium term down trend as it moved to a new three year low near 0.8850 but it reversed very well and looked poised to continue back towards the longer term resistance level at 0.93 before its obstacle at 0.9250. This level emerged again a couple of weeks ago as a level of significance although it has now been cleared.
Throughout July the AUD/USD placed constant pressure on the 0.93 level again as it continued to place buying pressure on that level however the resistance there was able to stand firm. It was during this time it did very well to maintain its price level well above 0.92 as place upward buying pressure on the resistance level at 0.93. Over the course of the last couple of months the 0.93 level has provided reasonable resistance to any movement higher and now that this level has been broken, it is providing a measure of support. Throughout July, the AUD/USD spent most of its time trading between 0.90 and 0.93 threatening to break through either level at multiple stages. The 0.9150 level also became a key level during that time providing both some resistance and more recently support, and this was called upon again a few weeks ago providing some much needed support however it was completely ignored a couple of weeks ago as the AUD/USD fell heavily through it.
It was only a month or so ago that many were waiting for the AUD/USD to break below the 90 cents level and then it would have been a matter of how far can it drop. It had continued to drift lower and move towards the 90 cents level, a level not seen for three years. Considering the speed of its decline over the last few months, the last couple of months has seen a significant slowing down and almost some consolidation as it has rested well on the support at 0.90 and made its way back to 0.93 on a few occasions. The last few months have seen the AUD/USD establish a strong medium term down trend with lower peaks and lower troughs, as it has moved from near 1.06 down to near 0.90 in that time. Up until mid April, the Australian dollar was enjoying its best move higher since October and November last year. After making a solid run higher in the middle of June back towards the key level of 0.97, the AUD/USD has since continued its strong and steady decline moving to below 0.90 and levels not seen since near the middle of 2010.
On Wednesday, the RBA issued its biannual financial stability review. There was nothing dramatic in the report, as the RBA noted that Australian banks are in solid shape. The RBA reiterated a call to the country’s banks to maintain loan standards in the face of record-low interest rates, which have led to an increase in credit demand. Earlier in the week Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI showed improvement. The key index continues to point to expansion, improving from 50.1 points in July to 51.2 points in August. This beat the estimate of 50.9 points. Key Chinese releases, such as PMIs, can have a major impact on the Australian dollar, since China is Australia’s number one trading partner.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
AUD/USD September 25 at 23:40 GMT 0.9365 H: 0.9388 L: 0.9338 AUD/USD Technical
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the AUD/USD is consolidating in a narrow range between 0.9360 and 0.9370, after having recently eased back from near 0.9390. Despite its slowing and slight recovery the last couple of months, the Australian dollar has been in a free-fall, as the currency lost around 15 cents since the beginning of May. In moving through to 1.0580 only a few months ago, it moved to its highest level since January. Current range: trading just above 0.9360.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8900 and 0.8850
• Above: 0.9400 and 0.9500.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back above 60% as the Australian dollar has eases back below 0.94. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Throughout July the AUD/USD placed constant pressure on the 0.93 level again as it continued to place buying pressure on that level however the resistance there was able to stand firm. It was during this time it did very well to maintain its price level well above 0.92 as place upward buying pressure on the resistance level at 0.93. Over the course of the last couple of months the 0.93 level has provided reasonable resistance to any movement higher and now that this level has been broken, it is providing a measure of support. Throughout July, the AUD/USD spent most of its time trading between 0.90 and 0.93 threatening to break through either level at multiple stages. The 0.9150 level also became a key level during that time providing both some resistance and more recently support, and this was called upon again a few weeks ago providing some much needed support however it was completely ignored a couple of weeks ago as the AUD/USD fell heavily through it.
It was only a month or so ago that many were waiting for the AUD/USD to break below the 90 cents level and then it would have been a matter of how far can it drop. It had continued to drift lower and move towards the 90 cents level, a level not seen for three years. Considering the speed of its decline over the last few months, the last couple of months has seen a significant slowing down and almost some consolidation as it has rested well on the support at 0.90 and made its way back to 0.93 on a few occasions. The last few months have seen the AUD/USD establish a strong medium term down trend with lower peaks and lower troughs, as it has moved from near 1.06 down to near 0.90 in that time. Up until mid April, the Australian dollar was enjoying its best move higher since October and November last year. After making a solid run higher in the middle of June back towards the key level of 0.97, the AUD/USD has since continued its strong and steady decline moving to below 0.90 and levels not seen since near the middle of 2010.
On Wednesday, the RBA issued its biannual financial stability review. There was nothing dramatic in the report, as the RBA noted that Australian banks are in solid shape. The RBA reiterated a call to the country’s banks to maintain loan standards in the face of record-low interest rates, which have led to an increase in credit demand. Earlier in the week Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI showed improvement. The key index continues to point to expansion, improving from 50.1 points in July to 51.2 points in August. This beat the estimate of 50.9 points. Key Chinese releases, such as PMIs, can have a major impact on the Australian dollar, since China is Australia’s number one trading partner.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
0.8900 | 0.8850 | — | 0.9400 | 0.9500 | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the AUD/USD is consolidating in a narrow range between 0.9360 and 0.9370, after having recently eased back from near 0.9390. Despite its slowing and slight recovery the last couple of months, the Australian dollar has been in a free-fall, as the currency lost around 15 cents since the beginning of May. In moving through to 1.0580 only a few months ago, it moved to its highest level since January. Current range: trading just above 0.9360.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8900 and 0.8850
• Above: 0.9400 and 0.9500.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back above 60% as the Australian dollar has eases back below 0.94. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Capital markets should be about to change gears. Last weeks disappointing ‘no’ taper certainly has the Fed losing some of its street ‘cred.’ This week, the markets are mostly in neutral, sometimes swayed by the erratic messaging from various Fed heads on display. However, the markets foot is on the clutch, ready to shift into a higher gear and again engage any fallout from the US government, opposition and lawmaker’s lack of cohesive agreement over the debt ceiling and US budget – sadly, not unfamiliar territory.
An equally long-drawn-out Washington budget battle two years ago led to the unprecedented downgrading of the US government debt, sending shivers down the spine of global Capital Markets. US Fiscal cliff concerns are again on many investors’ radar as its now highly probably that an agreement will not be reached by next weeks October 1st deadline. Last week, Fed Chair Bernanke alluded to policy makers concerns with Washington, the current political impasse is a good enough reason why not to start the QE tapering process.
Investors are beginning to question how much tapering is actually being priced in for October or December. The apparent event risk is the Fed not tapering at all this year. Obviously those odds will only get shorter with an ongoing budget battle in Washington. The possible suspension or delay of US economic releases, like this months employment report, will only make it more difficult for dealers and investors’ alike to interpret data to predict future events. The budget and debt ceiling standoff will quickly become the key driver for market uncertainty and volatility.
Pricing has subtly begun – US Treasuries and German bunds yields have fallen below the lows of last weeks FOMC meet announcement. Even the shorten end of the curve, money market instruments have removed most of the steepening priced in to taper. If anything, markets are pricing in things to get worse and a Fed taper to be further delayed – more lower yields.
The dollar is trying to edge higher against the so-called riskier or commonwealth currencies (NZD, AUD, CAD and GBP). The USD will be strongly favored if US lawmakers fail to arrange a budget deal preventing a US government shut down. The historically go to safer haven currencies – the yen and the Swiss franc – are preparing to stand fast against the dollar as market attentions becomes more influenced by the lack of action or break through on the US budget front.
The somewhat nonchalant approach is beginning to irk higher command. US Treasury Secretary Lew says Wall Street should take the looming debt limit more seriously. One has to look at equity indexes trading at -2% below their all-time highs reached last week and conclude that this is not a market wholly worried about the current on going shenanigans in Washington. Believing that everything will be “OK on the night” is not the most prudent of trading strategies – even the VIX is indicating calm markets.
The lethargic market needs help, it will turn its attention to this morning’s US durable orders print and new home sales for some guidance. The durables release is expected to show another decline for a second consecutive month in August, held down by the usual suspect – aircraft. The ex-transportation orders could be the surprise component, bouncing back after falling in July. Market consensus has new US home sales rallying between +6% and 8% last month, albeit good, it would only be a partial reverse of July’s -13% decline. Released results like this do not help investors, if anything it will increase market uncertainty with regards to the Fed’s policy intentions. Add in a little underrated Washington political discord, and capital markets will be having a negative impact on risk appetite.
Investors who had expected better things of the dollar on a change in US monetary policy now have to question their current strategies. USD/JPY (¥98.50) trading since the FOMC meet has all been about yen crosses and risk on/off again. Excluding the immediate purge of the dollar longs following the Fed’s ‘no’ taper surprise, yen has been sold mostly for carry positioning. Prudently, the market should be expecting the ‘mighty’ dollar to face pronounced selling pressure against the yen as investors begin to wake up to the fact that a budget impasse could lead to a shutdown of parts of the US economy. Dollar rallies should look like an enticing sell – however, there are many still to convince. The bulk of the current market remains short yen and is willing to add dollars, mostly via dollar buy stop losses. We should expect that “the wake up call” realization will lead to a nervous left hand side for USD/JPY.
Other Links:
Fed Speeches Support The EUR
Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis and Research @ OANDA MarketPulseFX
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Investors are beginning to question how much tapering is actually being priced in for October or December. The apparent event risk is the Fed not tapering at all this year. Obviously those odds will only get shorter with an ongoing budget battle in Washington. The possible suspension or delay of US economic releases, like this months employment report, will only make it more difficult for dealers and investors’ alike to interpret data to predict future events. The budget and debt ceiling standoff will quickly become the key driver for market uncertainty and volatility.
The dollar is trying to edge higher against the so-called riskier or commonwealth currencies (NZD, AUD, CAD and GBP). The USD will be strongly favored if US lawmakers fail to arrange a budget deal preventing a US government shut down. The historically go to safer haven currencies – the yen and the Swiss franc – are preparing to stand fast against the dollar as market attentions becomes more influenced by the lack of action or break through on the US budget front.
Fed Speeches Support The EUR
Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis and Research @ OANDA MarketPulseFX
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Bank of England will keep a close eye on the rising cost of houses in the country and says it can choose from a range of policy tools to employ if a price surge posed a risk to the financial system.
A number of recent housing indexes have suggested that prices are approaching pre-crisis highs, with London showing a particular resurgence. Nationwide confirmed in August that an average home was now worth £170,825 ($260,098), the highest since June 2008 when the average was £172,415. Meanwhile, property website Rightmove has predicted that prices are set to increase by 6 percent this year, from an initial estimate of 2 percent at the start of the year.
The figures have given rise to fears that a housing bubble is brewing.
A number of recent housing indexes have suggested that prices are approaching pre-crisis highs, with London showing a particular resurgence. Nationwide confirmed in August that an average home was now worth £170,825 ($260,098), the highest since June 2008 when the average was £172,415. Meanwhile, property website Rightmove has predicted that prices are set to increase by 6 percent this year, from an initial estimate of 2 percent at the start of the year.
The figures have given rise to fears that a housing bubble is brewing.
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said Republicans aren’t working fast enough to extend the debt limit—and the consequences of inaction are dire.
“If you look at the calm out there, which I think is a bit greater than it should be, there’s a sense that 2011 was a terrible experience and nobody would do that again,” Lew said Tuesday at the Bloomberg Markets 50 conference in New York. “People have to take seriously the fact that Congress has a lot of work to do in a short period of time and the consequences of their failure are very substantial.”
Lew also said the U.S. is almost out of money, and said in a letter to Congress Wednesday that Oct. 17 is the likely deadline when “extraordinary measures” will run out.
“It will be the middle of October when we are left with just cash–no more ability to go out and borrow unless Congress acts,” Lew said at the conference.
“If you look at the calm out there, which I think is a bit greater than it should be, there’s a sense that 2011 was a terrible experience and nobody would do that again,” Lew said Tuesday at the Bloomberg Markets 50 conference in New York. “People have to take seriously the fact that Congress has a lot of work to do in a short period of time and the consequences of their failure are very substantial.”
Lew also said the U.S. is almost out of money, and said in a letter to Congress Wednesday that Oct. 17 is the likely deadline when “extraordinary measures” will run out.
“It will be the middle of October when we are left with just cash–no more ability to go out and borrow unless Congress acts,” Lew said at the conference.
Ed Miliband's assertion that the rising tide of economic fortune used to lift all boats, but now only seems to lift yachts, would certainly seem to be borne out by the Monaco Yacht Show. The show, which has just begun, boasts Europe's largest collection of superyachts. At the show the Labour leader would find that demand is once again surging for the ultimate billionaire's plaything, ranging from an entry-level 30 metre-long boat costing around £10m, to gigantic vessels with 90-strong crews that are effectively private cruise liners.
The UK superyacht industry – a superyacht is more than 24 metres long – has reported record revenues of £460m, up 4% on last year, as more of their traditional customers in the US, Russia and the Middle East place orders for these custom-built, floating palaces.
In a survey of 138 companies in the superyacht industry, half reported an increased workload compared to a year ago, while only 19% – a smaller proportion than last year – said their workload had gone down.
The companies, which include yacht builders, designers and legal firms, are also in their most upbeat mood since before the economic crash, with 69% rating their prospects for the year ahead as "good or excellent", compared with 51% last year.
Tom Chant of Superyacht UK said the industry was in a buoyant mood, but profits had not yet returned to the 2007 pre-recession era.
"That was a particular bubble that has definitely burst." Current growth was more stable, he said. "The people who are coming into the market do have the money, they are not borrowing on banks who have borrowed on other things. The buyers that are coming in are good solid buyers who are there for the long-term."
The UK industry, which employs 3,550 people, has further room to grow. "There are more yards that could build yachts, than there are yachts with orders," Chant added.
The revival is supported by another industry survey from yachtmaker Camper & Nicholsons, which reported a 37% jump in yacht sales in the first half of the year to around 200 boats. However, the overall value of the market remained flat at $1bn (£620m), as industry figures are easily skewed by a few hyper-extravagant purchases.
The biggest market for superyachts remains the US, followed by Russia and the Middle East. China's super-rich have yet to develop much of an interest, despite the recent sale of Sunseeker International to the country's Dalian Wanda group. In Monaco "there is lots of talk about the potential of China, but it is just potential," said Chant.
The downturn slowed yacht buyers' appetite for extra-large yachts, with demand for vessels greater than 50 metres falling in 2011 and 2012, according to Camper & Nicholsons. But there are signs that it may be returning.
On the drawing board of the Hampshire-based firm Dubois are plans for a giant sloop, 101 metres long with a 125-metre mast that would dwarf both Big Ben's Elizabeth Tower and the Statue of Liberty.
The UK superyacht industry – a superyacht is more than 24 metres long – has reported record revenues of £460m, up 4% on last year, as more of their traditional customers in the US, Russia and the Middle East place orders for these custom-built, floating palaces.
In a survey of 138 companies in the superyacht industry, half reported an increased workload compared to a year ago, while only 19% – a smaller proportion than last year – said their workload had gone down.
The companies, which include yacht builders, designers and legal firms, are also in their most upbeat mood since before the economic crash, with 69% rating their prospects for the year ahead as "good or excellent", compared with 51% last year.
Tom Chant of Superyacht UK said the industry was in a buoyant mood, but profits had not yet returned to the 2007 pre-recession era.
"That was a particular bubble that has definitely burst." Current growth was more stable, he said. "The people who are coming into the market do have the money, they are not borrowing on banks who have borrowed on other things. The buyers that are coming in are good solid buyers who are there for the long-term."
The UK industry, which employs 3,550 people, has further room to grow. "There are more yards that could build yachts, than there are yachts with orders," Chant added.
The revival is supported by another industry survey from yachtmaker Camper & Nicholsons, which reported a 37% jump in yacht sales in the first half of the year to around 200 boats. However, the overall value of the market remained flat at $1bn (£620m), as industry figures are easily skewed by a few hyper-extravagant purchases.
The biggest market for superyachts remains the US, followed by Russia and the Middle East. China's super-rich have yet to develop much of an interest, despite the recent sale of Sunseeker International to the country's Dalian Wanda group. In Monaco "there is lots of talk about the potential of China, but it is just potential," said Chant.
The downturn slowed yacht buyers' appetite for extra-large yachts, with demand for vessels greater than 50 metres falling in 2011 and 2012, according to Camper & Nicholsons. But there are signs that it may be returning.
On the drawing board of the Hampshire-based firm Dubois are plans for a giant sloop, 101 metres long with a 125-metre mast that would dwarf both Big Ben's Elizabeth Tower and the Statue of Liberty.
- US Dollar tumbles post-Federal Open Market Committee decision
- Forex volatility prices likewise fell sharply, limiting potential for Dollar losses
- Our strategy trading preferences favor recent winners
Forex volatility prices have fallen sharply and suggest that major FX
pairs may stick to tight trading ranges through the foreseeable future.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sent the US Dollar sharply lower, but the simultaneous tumble in our DailyFX Volatility Indices suggests that further declines are less likely.
Forex Volatility Prices Tumble Following the Highly-Anticipated FOMC Decision
Source: OTC FX Options Prices from Bloomberg; DailyFX Calculations
In fact, our 1-Week, 1-Month, and 3-Month Volatility Indices show that traders predict some of the slowest forex market conditions since January. A strongly positive correlation between volatility and the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index suggests the Greenback can continue near significant lows.
Our trend-following Momentum2 trading strategy has done well selling into US Dollar weakness and remains our preferred system until further notice. Yet we’ll stress that past performance is not indicative of future results. This fact seems particularly relevant now: our sentiment-based trading systems tend to do better in high-volatility market conditions.
Our preference indeed remains towards what’s worked well to date, but it looks like a good time to trade on lower leverage in anticipation of potential underperformance in our trend-following strategies.
DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge
--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Definitions
Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.
OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.
Ask yourself how many times you have seen the ads in the Web offering to Forex traders to visit a website and buy/try or at least read about a new Forex robot. For sure, at least few times everyone has seen such ads but have you ever thought about making money by designing and selling your own Forex robots. If such a great idea visits your mind from time to time then you should definitely read further because we will tell you the secrets of how you can design and sell your own FX robot software.
Do we even have to say why FX robots are so popular nowadays? Because everyone is a bit crazy about those innovative automated and autopilot FX trading programs which are a real bliss especially for those Forex traders who like an idea of a successful trading without having reliable theoretical background and practical skills and relying only on expensive Forex software. We can’t approve such method but still confirm that Forex robots can be very useful especially if your Forex education was quite good from both theoretical and practical points of view.
Add to this fact such functions as constant controlling and managing your trades according to these parameters 24/5 any FX robot can provide and you will get an assistant that can help you without breaks because it doesn’t require sleeping and eating. Relying on a robot you can stick to your habitual schedule even providing a parallel working in the office being distracted from time to time thanks to the integrated tools which can send to a trader alerts about the upcoming changes at the Forex market so a person could respond in a proper way. So, if you are highly interested in making your own Forex robot because you want to earn money by selling its copies to other traders or simply because you want to have Forex robot software tuned up especially for oneself then follow the next advices.
Add to this fact such functions as constant controlling and managing your trades according to these parameters 24/5 any FX robot can provide and you will get an assistant that can help you without breaks because it doesn’t require sleeping and eating. Relying on a robot you can stick to your habitual schedule even providing a parallel working in the office being distracted from time to time thanks to the integrated tools which can send to a trader alerts about the upcoming changes at the Forex market so a person could respond in a proper way. So, if you are highly interested in making your own Forex robot because you want to earn money by selling its copies to other traders or simply because you want to have Forex robot software tuned up especially for oneself then follow the next advices.
How to design and then sell a FX robot?
Many new Forex robot builders and designers simply don’t know where to start to create really cool and which is more important a well-working program containing all necessary and maybe few additional and unique tools which can help investors, traders and brokers follow and manage their trades by means of your robot. This is not an easy task to do.
For sure, you have to be a programmer, this issue is not even worth of discussion because without certain practical and theoretical knowledge you won’t manage to build and run a robot in a proper way. From this point of view we can only recommend you to program your robot with an opportunity to gain profits which will be equal to a half or a bit less of the stop loss (your robot’s win-lose ratio should be about 66,7 percents).
Instead of the technical side we want to focus on the functions this robot should fulfill – it has to be designed to work fast, reacting quickly to all commands and is to be very customizable when it concerns tracking the latest Forex trends and displaying them as Forex charts. Besides you robot should be designed for mass exploiting which should be taken into account as well. Do not forget to build your own website where you can offer and enumerate all advantages of your robot software for automated trading.
Instead of the technical side we want to focus on the functions this robot should fulfill – it has to be designed to work fast, reacting quickly to all commands and is to be very customizable when it concerns tracking the latest Forex trends and displaying them as Forex charts. Besides you robot should be designed for mass exploiting which should be taken into account as well. Do not forget to build your own website where you can offer and enumerate all advantages of your robot software for automated trading.
Make sure that you use all means to promote your robot offer a subscription for a constant customers and free trial version in eager to attract more potential customers. Ask for an expert’s advise in order to organize and run your website and ad campaign properly.
There exist hundreds of Forex robot reviews in the Web you can find in order to compare the most popular platforms which offer their services as brokerage companies which can propose the newest versions of their own Forex robots or simply who deal with the hugest software developers and brokers. You see, the Forex traders prefer to choose wisely and then select one and the only Forex robot to provide their trades after tuning up one certain program.
Besides most of the contemporary Forex traders use for their trading systems and strategies the basics and principles of the technical analysis and assistance of online Forex brokers and brokerage organizations which logically make them look for reliable Forex robot reviews. Basing their trading strategies upon studying different possible combinations of price actions (mostly via the Forex charts – tabs displaying the price movements up and then down) and taking into account all those numerous technical indicators traders are always in a constant search for the most profitable, advantageous and reliable charting software and Forex robot reviews.
After analysis of certain statistical data, we can name three most popular Forex robots reviews which caused lots of rumors, positive and negative discussions but still stay as the most popular and best-selling ones due to many reasons. If you are a Forex newbie you will definitely find the following Forex robot reviews we offer as very interesting ones.
1) Fap Turbo Robot Platform
Traders love this Forex robot because of wide range of currency pairs it supports which makes it available to follow their short and long-term strategies. Fap Turbo’s Forex robots reviews are just hilarious and are encouraged mostly by the fact of the winning rate which has been up to ninety five percents for years and which is more important thanks to the approved statistical data its drawdown percentage (losing trades to be more precise) which is less than one percent telling us about reliability and perfect design of this Forex robot.
2) Ivy Bot Automated Forex Robot
This software can boast mostly positive Forex robot review as well and its proud 94 percents of the winning trades. Add to this the facts this robot is fully automated one and trades up to four currency pairs at the same time. Most of robots require from you learning how to tweak them (meaning setting them up) and not always newbies can fulfill this task with dignity. That is why Ivy Bot developers decided to do all “dirty job” instead of you and made this robot as tweaked as it is possible providing their clients with weekly updates for better performance. Many trades found this peculiarity of Ivy Bot very cool while the others insist that manual setting up would be better. It is up to you to decide to which group you belong after trying Ivy Bot in action.
3) Forex Megadroid
The peculiarity of this software is not just in good Forex robots review but also in the advantage of taking Forex market conditions into a trading account before actual putting a trade which is the alternative to trading way by means of usage of predetermined set of indicators and their combinations along with entry points. This robot is fully automated as well and has its own 96 percents of the winning trades. The only drawback is that this program allows trading only one pair – the EUR/USD – but certainly in the most efficient way than the other robots performing.
Since that great times when the Internet became very available for all social layers the Forex exchange market has started to flourish because the constant income of money and new traders who began to try themselves as online FX traders. Since those days and till nowadays Forex online trading systems are in high demand especially the successful ones because if a trader uses one of them he/she can expect to earn money without leaving his/her own home. Such way of earning your money for living seems to be good to be true and that is why many beginners after few failures begin to say that there is no such thing as reliable Forex online trading systems and there are only scammers and predators in the Web who try to worm out your money. Let’s try to figure if this statement is true to life.
No one says that Forex online trading systems are all good and give a 100 percent guarantee that a trader will earn his money at once. You see, the Forex market is very changeable and it is rather risky to trade on it even if you have taken into account all possible factors that can impact on your trades and calculated the best trading strategy. The only advice here is to practice and practice as long as you can afford within the limits of a demo account which can show how tough and unexpected the live Forex trading can be. Having such experience you can start the live trading but only with very small amounts of money to lose.
You as a FX newbie should understand that all Forex online trading systems are based on experience and a proper Forex education. You are to figure out how does the largest financial marketplace work and use this knowledge to derive benefits from your trades more often than losing your money. You are to know how to choose the currency pairs and read the Forex charts in order to decide whether to buy or sell and when you need to open, hold or close your trading positions. Every reliable Forex trading school or a Forex online guideline or a manual which for sure will cost you money can teach how to make a right entry in the Forex exchange market. Never save your means on your Forex education because it will bring you more money in the foresight.
Well, we can tip how you can start. Always begin from setting up a demo trading account which every online brokerage organization can offer. A regulated broker is what you need to look for. It will be great if you manage to find a Forex broker with a reputation and registered in the Commodities Trading Commission. All Forex online trading systems require you using a demo account to understand what trading at the Forex means in general. Practice with fake money before starting to lose your own money (prepare to lose at first because it is very complicated for a newbie to provide any of the most successful Forex online trading systems).
Remember that the Forex market is open 24/5 which means you can literally trade all days and nights long without stops (in theory for sure). Appeal to different online communities and never ignore the recommendations provided by more experienced Forex traders who managed to earn a fortune at the Forex market. Be open and share your own experience as well.
Remember that the Forex market is open 24/5 which means you can literally trade all days and nights long without stops (in theory for sure). Appeal to different online communities and never ignore the recommendations provided by more experienced Forex traders who managed to earn a fortune at the Forex market. Be open and share your own experience as well.
Even if you are a newbie you have probably heard about the so called Foreign exchange market reserves. We will try to explain in the following article all the significant features of such Forex reserves and their impact on the global Forex trading system in general. So read further in order to find out more about these mysterious Forex reserves.
In fact there is nothing mysterious in the definition or functions of such Foreign exchange market reserves because they simply refer to the various foreign exchange notes and governmental debts which are held by the hugest world’s central bank organizations. Most of the world’s countries have their own Forex exchange market reserves which are used when it is necessary. By means of such reserves a country can impact on the exchange rates and on the import-export economy as well.
Speaking about more precise identification of the Foreign exchange market reserves, we should say the following: government representatives use such reserves in order to provide a proper amount of different international payments. The functions of such payments can be very different but mostly concern procuring of various services and products like raw materials, real estate objects and equipment for military forces. High reserves mean a country is rather powerful from the economical and financial point of view. As you may understand, every nation and government is very motivated to develop a strong and high Forex exchange market reserve. Having such a strong back-up a country can provide negotiations concerning reducing interest rates on a country’s debt and close the contracts with huge international partners on much better terms.
You may ask – what central bank organizations can get from suchForex exchange market reserves? And we answer – the officials get a chance to control exchange rates on their own domestic currency rates using reserves as strong financial back-ups and political tools. In order to make a domestic currency more stable and stronger a nation can spend a Foreign exchange reserve to purchase its own domestic banknotes. For sure, such activity will increase the demand for this currency which will lead to higher valuation rates. Or a country can use such a strong reserve to buy foreign banknotes in order to reduce the value of its domestic currency. Everything depends on the chosen strategy a country follows.
To make it easier for you - those nations which can boast stronger export economies are aimed at reducing the exchange rates making them weaker. In such way exported products become more affordable for foreign customers. Besides, a weak home currency can attract a buying interest for the security investments of a nation which become very cheap for foreign customers as well. So in order to attract more foreign potential customers and investors a nation with a strong foreign exchange market reserve can weaken a domestic currency on purpose.
To make it easier for you - those nations which can boast stronger export economies are aimed at reducing the exchange rates making them weaker. In such way exported products become more affordable for foreign customers. Besides, a weak home currency can attract a buying interest for the security investments of a nation which become very cheap for foreign customers as well. So in order to attract more foreign potential customers and investors a nation with a strong foreign exchange market reserve can weaken a domestic currency on purpose.
As for the low exchange rates they set for home currency they can become inflationary due to the fact imports turn to be more expensive at home. If such situation occurs a central bank of this nation uses a FX exchange reserve to purchase a home currency and support in such way higher exchange rates under the circumstances when inflation turns into a concern
Financial markets are an economic system where its participants trade in specific goods - financial instruments. The system includes such participants as banks (that can play the role of market-makers), exchanges, broker companies, financial instruments (for example, funds) and individual traders. The goods that are sold by the participants, are called financial instruments or assets. In the most general sense, financial instruments are certain obligations (contracts) that prove facts of mutual demands of two parties. The first party is obligated to supply (immediately or in future, unconditionally or on certain conditions) goods, and the second - to pay (for example, with money or securities).
An important feature of the financial markets is that the money or securities themselves might be regarded as goods. But of course common (usual) goods and raw materials are also sold at the financial markets. On the basis of it the financial markets may be divided into foreign exchange markets, stock markets and raw materials markets.
An important feature of the financial markets is that the money or securities themselves might be regarded as goods. But of course common (usual) goods and raw materials are also sold at the financial markets. On the basis of it the financial markets may be divided into foreign exchange markets, stock markets and raw materials markets.
Picture 1. Types of financial markets
In our course we will pay general attention to foreign exchange market Forex and its participants, including broker companies and individual traders. Roles and functions of others participants of the financial markets (banks, exchanges, financial institutions) are widely described in other sources (see The List of Recommended Literature) and also in other (special) courses of our company.
The other feature of the financial markets is standardization of volume of transactions (size of contracts) by means of lots. At the Forex exchange market a standard contract (one lot) is equal to 1 000 000 (one million) units of acquired currency. In the reality such volumes are sold very seldom at Forex. More typical situation is when the transaction has a volume of ten (10 000 000 units) or more lots.
Such a volume of deals is not always available for an individual investor. The broker companies that provide their services to Forex (for example, LiteForex), give an opportunity to individual traders to carry out operations at the foreign exchange market Forex providing them with so-called leverage. It goes like this. A trader opens an account in the company (sometimes it is called a secure deposit). This deposit is used as a bail (margin) that provides a guarantee of the client ability to pay to the broker company.
When a transaction is opened, a certain part of means, that becomes a guarantee of the transaction (margin), is frozen on the client’s account. The broker company, from its part, adds means, increasing the sum by 50, 100, 200 or 500 times. Basically, it is a purpose loan provided to the client by the broker company for the full time of life of transaction Some companies provide such a credit at certain interest or charge a certain commission, but LiteForex provides the leverage to its clients for free. The size of the leverage in this case is indicated as 1:50; 1:100; 1:200 or 1:500. Using the leverage, an individual trader may enter Forex having relatively small deposit. Thus if a trader has $10 000, then using the 1:100 leverage, the biggest possible amount of the transaction that is available for him is equal to 1 000 000 (one million dollars).
Picture 2. The work of leverage
Apart from leverage broker companies provide an opportunity to trade using cent accounts and work with fractional lots. In this case a trader gets an opportunity to work with deposits from US$1 (at cent account it is equal to 100 units) that by means of leverage will allow him to open a transaction at volume of 10 000 (0,1 of lot); the transactions at volume of 10 000 or less are called fractional (mini-, micro-) lots. Broker companies cannot lead such micro-transactions at the foreign exchange market separately. Thus in case of work with cent accounts, the consolidated position is led to the market.
It is not a secret that a Forex trader provides all transactions with buying and selling currency pairs using online means, cooperation with Forex brokers and each of them also applies a Forex trading account: at first a demo account operating with virtual money to prepare for real time or live trading in the Forex market and then appealing to different types of FX trading accounts when supposing one is ready for risks dealing with losing or earning real money.
Below you will find a review of pros and cons of the most common type of a Forex trading account plenty of traders choose all over the world - the standard FX trading account. There are also not so popular but applied managed trading accounts, as well as mini and demo accounts for new Forex traders.
Explaining a standard Forex trading account
It stands for the most common and widely used trading account applied by Forex traders. It has such label because allows its owner to gain an access to standard lots of any currency every of which is worth about 100 thousands USD. Many beginners suppose that one needs to invest real 100 thousand dollars in order to start live trading at forex market. Those common rules of leverage and margin (usually 100 to 1 in Forex trading) denote that you need to put only one thousand of bucks down to this margin Forex trading account to get 1 standard lot necessary for such Forex trading. Ask any FX expert and he/she will prove this fact because most of traders work for years using advantages of this type of a FX trading account. However, only an experienced and full-time as well as successful and rich trader can expect to understand all nuances while using such account for FX trading.
Speaking about advantages of a standard trading account we should name the most obvious ones:
- servicing: due to the fact the standard Forex account needs an investment of the adequate initial capital from FX traders into trading process to get an access to full lots plenty of Forex brokers have to provide outstanding services and conduct improvements to draw attention of rich and private investors. You can expect to get the best service using the standard FX trading account.
- gaining potential: each pip here is worth about ten dollars or higher and in a case positions moves according to your strategy and natural Forex fluctuations by one hundred pips during one day your gain can increase up to one thousand dollars. Any other type of a Forex trading account can't boast such potential when it concerns a possible gain.
However, even the sun has it spots and a standard Forex account is not an exception. The most common cons of its usage are:
- requirements for capital: as it was mentioned above the most important issue is to find an initial sum of money should be no less than one thousands of dollars while many brokers start their rates for a standard Forex account from tow or even thousands of USD. So prepare to invest such money and also be ready to lose them as well.
- losses potential is also high: you may win a lot or may lose it all. Only really experienced traders can expect to use a standard FX trading account and risk one thousand of real dollars expecting and forecasting that 100 pips won't move against them during one trading day.
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